NithinCoca.com

From left to right. You can watch the debate here.

Clinton: Whoa. Did you hear that laugh after the Paris Hilton joke? I couldn’t hear anyone else. Maybe she’s trying to hard to seem jovial? And she’s continuing that “hey, we aren’t so different” rhetoric. Big cheers for the line about white women vs. black women and AIDS, and well deserved.

Biden: I’m counting how often he says “the fact of the matter is”. So far I’ve heard it in every single response except one. He’s really toned it down, though, from last debate, when he sounded like his podium was on fire.

Richardson: Bill, Bill…he asked you about AIDS in the African American community, not in Africa. Next to ultra-polished lawyer talk John Edwards, you seem raw, did you even rehearse. In a way, maybe that’s good. You do stand out. Nevertheless, a huge improvement, perhaps setting himself up for a jump to the first tier?

Edwards: A question - if you really care deeply about the poor, do you have to remind us about it every single time you answer? Ditto for basically every issue (Katrina, poverty, black colleges…). Him reminding us about what he cares about makes it seem more artificial, almost as if he is reminding himself. That is Edwards problem.

Obama: He’s improving, but we want direct answers, not academic answers. Has a tendency to get caught up in the details a little bit too often, not in a John Kerry zzzzzzzz sort of way, more of a “hey, its not so simple” sorta way.

Kucinich: eh…I’m waiting for him to whip out the pocket constitution. Quoting Martin Luther King Jr. was quite the pander. Him and Edwards seem to be trying too hard to connect with the African american audience.

Gravel: Ahh! This is the Gravel from the first debate, the fiery, witty Gravel who actually added something to the debate. Though connecting the War on Drugs to AIDS is a bit of a stretch.

Dodd: He acts like he’s a serious candidate. He talks like he’s a serious candidate. My favorite of the no-chance crowd, though I wonder if he knows that he has…absolutely no chance.

The appeals are out, the quarter coming to a close, and we’re seeing some signs that things might dramatically change in the Democratic field.

Now, first, the spin from the candidates, or their attempts at setting expectations.

1. Hillary Clinton - her spin is that she’s gonna match the $26 million she raised last quarter. Whether she means $26 million in primary money, or mixed primary/general money, she hasn’t said. I”m assuming the latter, and that she’ll beat the $26 million overall, a victory for her.

2. Barack Obama - His campaign has been a but mum. All the emails are about building a base of donaters, and how every small ammount helps because Obama is not taking money from special interests or lobby groups. But on the wires, his campaign is saying he has no chance of beating Hillary. Sounds pretty blunt. I expect him to outraise the $23.7 million, but if he doesn’t outraise Hillary, that is really going to continue to leech the momentum that has been draining out of his campaign since the Spring.

3. John Edwards - Here is where things get interesting. Edwards raised $14 million the first quarter, $5 million more than his top total in ‘03, but far behind his fellow frontrunners. Remember that he raised a large portion of his money from fellow lawyers who had all reached the $2,300 maximum. His emails are calling for $9 million, as his a huge banner on his website, a huge drop from $14 million. I expect Edwards to report somewhere aroung $10 million. This may hurt him in the polls, but remember, he dropped off dramatically in Q2 in ‘03. Edwards is a master at Iowa style retail politics, where money matters less than in other states, but this will hurt his campaign nationally and will only make Iowa more important for him, especially if what I’m predicting below happens.

4. Bill Richardson - Now running a clear 4th in the polls, Richardson was surprisingly strong in the first quarter, with $6.4 million, perhaps making use of his many connections he made during his long tenure in politics. Now the question is, can he create shockwaves and jump into the first tier by outraising Edwards? His campaign hasn’t been quiet, claiming loudly that they are going to beat Edwards. Now sitting at 7-10% in the latest Iowa Polls, can Richardson hit the magic $10 million mark, and join the first tier? I predict he will, and this news may be bigger than what happens at the top between Obama and Clinton, unless one of them has a clear victory.

5-8. The Others - I don’t forsee any big news from down here. Dodd will probably lead this crowd, though Biden may show some muscle after his vocal debate perfomances.

There is a debate on the 28th, and it will be interesting to see how all this plays out. Will Richardson get more time, finally? Will Edwards still be in the center with Obama and Clinton? And what will Gravel say?

I’ll be heading on a family vacation tomorrow, so no entries until I return on June 25th. But don’t despair, you can get better info at the political blogs on the blogroll.

Voyager of the seas, here I come!

Since I couldn’t find a good list, I decided to compile my own. All sources linked. First upcoming debate is the PBS Debate, on June 28th.

DNC - Officially Sanctioned Debates

November 15, 2007: CNN* in Las Vegas, NV

December 10, 2007: CBS in Los Angeles, CA

From Hotline

Other Debates

January 6th, 2007 - Des Moines Register Debate, Johnson County, Iowa (date likely to change)

January 15th, 2008 - Caucus of African-American Nevadans, Las Vegas, Nevada

January 31st, 2008 - Los Angeles Times and CNN, Los Angeles, CA

As I find out about new and upcoming debates, I’ll edit this section. If you know of a debate I’m forgetting, email me.

For more, see Wikipedia’s Democratic Debates Schedule

Yesterday was the Obama campaign national Walk for Change canvassing day, where an estimated 10,000 volunteers around the country, in every state, walked their local neighborhoods and helped spread the word about Barack Obama.

Is canvassing an efective tool for modern day campaigns? It’s a question that is yet to be answered along with another question - is it worth canvassing over 7 or 8 months before the election (in Missouri, the election would not be until February?) Are we making a difference?

But in my opinion, that isn’t the point. The point is, 10,000 people came together because they are willing to give up their Saturdays to help elect Barack Obama President. Can any other of the 17 Presidential candidates say that? It gave us something to do, allowed us to connect, and to think of new ideas. The Kansas City group will be tabling at the two upcoming Jazz festivals that are going to be happening this month, and working on setting up a weekly table at the city market and other events.

Click here to see what the Post had to say about the first of many Walk for Change events.

I’ve gotten a lot of requests for more information about Camp Obama, so here you go.

Who should join Camp Obama?

Camp Obama is a training program for those who want to do more than just support the candidate, but are willing to donate a large chunk of their time to the campaign. It’s to help those who want to do more to learn how best they can help the campaign, and in turn, help the campaign realize where best it can use you. During my Camp, most of the attendees were from the Chicago area and were planning on interning during the summer at the HQ. Some, including me, were interested in working in an early state, and we were connected with the field organizer of where we wanted to go.

Any secrets to getting accepted? I haven’t heard back yet…

Not that I know of! A lot of people are intereted in Barack Obama, its no secret. So a lot of people have applied, so it might take a while for them to get back to you. Trust me, they will. I had to do a phone interview wherupon I was told to come to Chicago.

Was it worth it?

YES! We got to meet with David Plouffe, the campaign manager, and other important people in the campaign. Some experienced field organizers and campaign experts spoke to us and provided us with an inside view of the campaign, how they plan to win. We even had to sign non-disclousure agreements. I reccomend you going.

f you’re interested in joining Camp Obama, click here. If you have any more questions, please email me here or leave a comment. Most likely I will be going to Iowa in a few months. Also, if you’re already volunteering with the campaign in Iowa, I’d like to hear from you too.

See Dailykos reaction here.

A short analysis since this debate has already been overanalyzed. I don’ t like to declare winners. Debates are to me like multiperson boxing matches, and we’re the judged of who won the TKO. Most of the time, we’re just cheering for our favorite boxer and can’t tell who won cause we’re too busy rooting for our guy to KO the other guys.

Unfortunatly, no one was KO’ed. Obama improved greatly over his first debate, but he takes too long to warm up, and many people probably only watched the first half hour saw the less than thrilling Obama. Hillary was sharp, but on the defensive even though no one really attached her except Wolf.

And speaking of Wolf, can you try to be less obviously trying to pit them against each other. To create conflict. “Tell me why you are right and all you’re opponents are poop-heads”. At least his attempts are creating the “Hypothetical Situation Room” (thank you Daily Show) were stopped by Obama and Hillary standing up against stupid hypothetical questions.

Biden has really become vocal. Not sure what to think about that. He really seemed to get emotional about Darfur. But, does he really think he can win? Biden? Dodd? I really only see four candidates with a chance, the top tier three, and Richardson because he’s a Governor and because of his experience. But he’s a longshot.

At 6pm CST, the Democratic Presidential candidates will debate on CNN. Check here afterwards for my own expert analysis.

More information about the debate here.