I am heading up today to help our with GOTC (get out the caucus) for Barack Obama in Iowa. As part of my volunteer commitment, I am not allowed to post on a blog about what I am doing in Iowa. So, don’t expect too many political updates up to the Iowa Caucuses. I know, it sucks. But I will be back January 4th with lots of insider detail goodies about what’s happening in Iowa!
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays!
From Nithin Coca
I’m here to counter the media narrative and blogger narrative. That John Edwards, as a result of time and history, has the best organization in Iowa. That Hillary Clinton, due to the machine behind her, has the most effective organization in Iowa.
Crossposted at DailyKos
No. Barack Obama has the best organization in Iowa, hands down. A tested, proven organization.
There are three major visibility events in Iowa before the caucuses, the first being the Drake debate, the second the Harkin Steak Fry, and the third the Jefferson Jackson Dinner. There are numerous minor events, sign wars, etc, but these three events are a test of each campaigns ability to bring out its supporters, and a general test of its organizational strength.
One campaign stood out at all three of these visibility events. Barack Obama.
The Drake Debate: Late August
An early test of organizational strength, hundreds of Obama supporters showed up at the wee hours of the morning to cheer on Barack before the Drake Debate.
The Harkin Steak Fry: Mid September
I think this video says it all. Fast forward to the 3:05 mark!
Out of an estimated 6000 attendees, almost half were Barack Obama supporters, and of the other half, at least 1,000 were undecided voters.
From MSNBC
the made-for-TV moment was won by the Obama campaign. It wasn’t quite the march on Washington, but Barack Obama — leading a column of about 1,000 supporters — marched along a dirt road and along the rolling green fields leading into the steak fry, waving signs, chanting, and appearing to present the candidate as the messiah of “change” and “hope.”
The Huffington Post
Obama held a rally there before hand with 2,500 supporters there and then they all marched into the Ballon Field led by the Des Moines Isiserettes. I didn’t attend the rally, but say the swarm coming in, and it was a sight to see. My wife went on and on about how well organized and smoothly it ran.
But what is most important is what the supporters said
I would like to thank all of the Obama volunteers, staff, and supporters who made the Harkin Steak Fry a memorable event.
What an incredibly united movement we are creating with Senator Obama.
The Jefferson Jackson Dinner
The only of the three I attended, and easily the most memorable political event of my life. From the pre-rally with 5,000 people, to the event in the auditorium with 3,000 Obama supporters, almost half of the total attendance. But the most amazing thing was the organization, how prepared the staff were with signs, water, instructions on what to do, and they truly maximized the effect of the crowd and kept everyone pretty happy throughout the five hour long event.
3,000 people on a dreary, rainy Saturday evening to spend five hours watching dull political speeches? The truth is – Barack Obama was able to turn out more Iowans than Hillary Clinton and John Edwards to the Jefferson Jackson dinner to spend half of their day at a generally dull, boring event. If Obama can turn out 5,000 people in Des Moines for this, who is to say that on a cold snowy Iowan day, he can’t turn out more dedicated supporters than the other campaigns? Barack Obama has the proven ground game in Iowa, and on caucus night, we’ll see the true power of this organization in its ability to bring out new caucus goers.
1000 House Parties, one month before the caucuses. Precinct captains in nearly every precinct. Tested, proven, fired up and ready to go!
I believe the writing is on the wall. Obama’s organization CAN and WILL turn out its supporters for the caucuses. His organization has proved that it knows how to bring people out. Whether this equals caucus victory, we’ll have to see. But at this moment in the game, I wouldn’t trade Obama’s organization for that of any other candidate, I have complete confidence in Obama’s ground game.
I’m sick and tired of all the “Candidate A is more Electable than Candidate B” diaries. Are we so insecure as a party that we can’t stop worrying what the other side thinks about us? Why are we so god damn worried about electablity? It’s almost become a cancer that is eating away at our party’s soul. Don’t you wonder why the Republicans don’t argue about electability like us?
Why are we, the party that has lost 5 of the last 7 elections, worried about electability when the Republicans have continued to nominate right wing idealogues like Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush, all of whom were both considered unelectable because of their conservative stances, yet all of whom are two term winners?
crossposted at OpenLeft and DailyKos
The Arguments:
Hillary Clinton = Most Electable. Knows how to beat the Republicans. Does best in Ohio and Virginia, critical swing states.
Barack Obama = Most Electable. Appeals to independents. Best in Zogby GE Matchups. Performs well in Missouri and Iowa.
John Edwards = Most Electable. Southern appeal (look at last 2 Dem Presidents). Best in CNN GE Polls
Conclusion: Umm. Inconclusive. Why should I vote on electability? Is that how Democracy works?
Maybe we should think like this. We are Democrats. We represent at least (and probably more) than half the country. When we pick a candidate because we believe in him or her, because we believe in his or her stances, and because him or her inspires us, we win half the country. The reasons that we choose our candidates WILL appeal to those in the other half or in the center. When we choose someone because they seem “electable” then we forget why people vote for certain candidates.
George W. Bush. Republicans didn’t vote for him because he was the most electable. They voted for him because he was a straight shooter, seemed authentic, and spoke to their concerns. John Kerry? We voted for him because he was electable. Independents and Republicans saw nothing in him, and he lost.
We should NOT worry incessantly about who the Republicans want to face. Who cares who they want to face? Did Republicans think that a sex-scandal plagued, small state southern Governor was the toughest candidate to face in 1992? Did we think that a conservative, gaffe-prone, southern Governor was a better candidate than a moderate Western Senator with strong indy appeal? Do we know who we want to face right now?
Let’s focus on our race, and let them focus on there’s.
And one more note: GE matchups are a waste of time. Mitt Romney has only 67% name recognition. Huckabee, Paul, and Thompson are far lower. Obama, Edwards, and McCain still don’t have universal name recognition. Only two candidates do – Guiliani and Clinton. Polls change. Michael Dukakis had a 18 point lead disappear. Clinton was in third place once – behind Bush and Perot! – in 1992. Did those polls tell us anything?
So I implore all Democrats, vote for the candidate who inspires you, who you believe will best lead our country into the future. Look at the candidate yourself, and follow your heart. Do not vote for someone solely because you think they’re “electable.” Sure, consider it, but don’t let polls and RedState make the decision for you. If we do that, then Democrats have already lost, and we’re handing our core values to the Republicans on a silver platter.
Anyone ever notice how most of the Republicans running for President do not hold current positions? They’re unemployed! Does that mean anything? No! As George W. Bush and Ronald Reagan have proved, hard work is a vice. While they might not have jobs, while they might not have to vote or take stances on the pertinent issues in Congress or in their states, I can prove to you that each of them has been working tirelessly in the public service. And, just for clarification, by public service, you mean obvious self interest, right?
Crossposted at MyDD and DailyKos
First up, we have FORMER Senator Fred Thompson. He left the Senate in 2003 to work one of the most pressing issues facing America. Solving crime. On television. As a dedicated public servant. Fred Thompson has worked tirelessly in Hollywood to make sure that we have something to watch on syndicated television until the end of time. Without his work, imagine what Must See TV would be like? Cringe.
Don’t forget the estemed FORMER Mayor of New York City, Rudy Guiliani, who stepped down back in 2002, just six short years ago. Since leaving, though, he’s continued to save New York City from the abyss by speaking all around the country about himself, action, and 9/11. He also started a website and…ugghh…did another speaking tour. Throw in a few shady Wall Street deals, Middle Eastern Business ties, and you got yourself the next President of the United States!
But wait, let’s not get ahead of ourselves. The Governors are in the House!
First up, FORMER Governor Mitt Romney. At first glance, his four years as Governor seem to be an abberation from a lifelong career of raking in the dough, with his sons to assist him by not fighting for their country, but fighting to make Romney President. If that’s not selfish, then I don’t know what selfish means. In reality, giving up business to become Governor was merely a stepping stone to the most lucrative job in America – President. After deciding to avoid certain re-election defeat, and waiting nine long days after stepping down, Romney announced he was running for President. The next two months were spent flip-flopping to match the stances of Iowans and New Hampshirans. Massachusettes agrees!
But wait. Is that a bird? A plane? Jesus Christ? No! But close, its FORMER Governor Mike Huckabee, the Christian from Hope, here to wish us Merry Christmas, raise our taxes, and remind us that the majority of founding fathers were clergyman, and that Satan himself threw in that annoying clause about “Seperation of church and state.” If this wasn’t a Christian nation, then why else would the founding fathers have never told us anywhere in the Constitution? His logic is unmistakable, unquestionable, and Presidential.
And the others, the ones with “jobs?”
Of course. I can’t forget Senator John McCain, who hasn’t left the Senate to pursue a career of glory on television, or to achieve riches on a perpetual speaking tour, or to let god let him win the nomination. But with his second place ranking as having missed the most votes of any Senator (blasted Senator Tim Johnson and his “brain hemorrhage”) its obvious that McCain’s “job” is nothing more than a label, and that he’s as tied to public service as his esteemed colleagues running for Senate.
As for the Congressman (Ron Paul, Tom Tacredo, and Duncan Hunter)? Where better to push your pet issues (Austrian economics, hatred of brown people, and “my border fence fantasy”) than in the crazy, “loco” House of Representatives? Now that’s called working for the American people.
With candidates working this hard to make America better, what more could you ask for?
First, Hillary Clinton
It’s all about her Des Moines Register endorsement. Did they purposely try to make her look like a reporter from the 1960′s (it reminded me of the Daily Planet from the original Superman movies) ? I’m a little perplexed as to what they’re trying to get across – hard working, landline phone using future President, endorsed by a newspaper?
Second, Mike Huckabee
Uggh. I liked it until he said “to celebrate Jesus Christ”. Whoops, way to alienate me, Huckabee. If he hadn’t lost all that weight, he’d look like Santa in that red sweater, don’t you think? Are people really sicks of TV ads in the early primary/caucus states? Too much Chuck Norris?
Third, Barack Obama (click to see video)
Honestly, it’s one of the best so far. Positive, great music, and a strong message. I would love to see Obama speaking to the camera, as I think he excels in that format, but the ads gets you pumped up. Or, should I say, Fired Up?
Quite possibly the biggest endorsement left in Iowa (unless Tom Harkin comes out of his Dean-shaped shell of fear). Let’s start up the rumor mill!
Crossposted at DailyKos
#1) Joe Biden
What if the Des Moines Register Endorses Biden?
The Register’s own David Yepsen raved about Biden’s performance in the paper’s debate yesterday. Given the Register’s self-importance—it aggressively promotes its debate as the leading event in the run-up to the caucuses—it wouldn’t shock me if it decided to go with the debate’s (Yepsen-appointed) winner.
But its the New Republic. I wouldn’t trust anything that comes out of that cesspool.
So, from a far better source (The Huffington Post) comes this. Author Glenn Horowitz says:
I talked to a major statewide leader with a large following … I can’t say his name yet, but he told me that he’s going to endorse Edwards next week. And I think that could really [make] a significant difference. So I think we’re on the cusp of an Edwards surge.
Considering Edwards won the endorsement of the Register four years ago, it could always happen again. Second time’s the charm? Speculation abound.
But wait! From another reliable source. Barack Obama to get the endorsement? So says Hotline on Call.
On Call is hearing that the Des Moines Register endorsements could be imminent, possibly tomorrow, and posted online tonight.
Buzz is that the odds are with Barack Obama…
The paper’s support for John Edwards in 2004 catapulted him to a second place caucus finish. This year, though, he competes for the nod with a ‘fresher’ face in Obama.
Obama’s anti-war position could be the deal sealer. Edwards supported the 2002 Iraq war resolution, but has since said the vote was a mistake.
Stay tuned.
So its Biden, Obama, or Edwards? What? I think my head’s gonna explore…
Why don’t we just wait till tomorrow and find out from the best source of them all – The Des Moines Register.
Two new candidates rankings are out today, first, from the Iowa Independent.
First Place
Barack Obama — Upward Momentum — Obama has enjoyed a great week of press following his events with Oprah Winfrey. His organization is showing signs of real strength with its nearly 1,000 house parties across the state Thursday night, and he seems to have strong second-choice support. If the caucuses were held tonight, he would win.
Followed by Edwards and Clinton. This is the first time that the Iowa Independent has placed Obama in first place. In the last one, he was tied for second, and before that, third.
And another one from the Washington Post.
1. (tie) Barack Obama: We’ve written extensively over the last few weeks that Obama has improved drastically as a candidate since the start of the race. He is a confident presence on the trail these days and that confidence has seeped down to his staff who now truly believe they can win. It’s a remarkable achievement for a candidate who has only been on the national stage for the last three years or so. Who would have thought it would be Obama not Clinton who would be running the more disciplined and on-message campaign with just three weeks left before Iowa? Can he keep it up? We think so, and there is little question that the organization that Obama has built in Iowa is top notch. But, on caucus night, will Iowans have second thoughts? Will head (Clinton) win out over heart (Obama)? (Previous ranking: 2)
Hillary is also tied with him at #1, but again, momentum seems to be all on Barack’s side. Can he keep this up to January 3rd? Yes, if I have my stay. I’m heading up to Iowa to help out with GOTC (Get Out The Caucus) the day after Christmas. Get ready for reports from the road!
