Monthly Archives: December 2007

Des Moines Register: Endorsement Rumors Galore!

Quite possibly the biggest endorsement left in Iowa (unless Tom Harkin comes out of his Dean-shaped shell of fear). Let’s start up the rumor mill!

Crossposted at DailyKos

#1) Joe Biden

What if the Des Moines Register Endorses Biden?

The Register’s own David Yepsen raved about Biden’s performance in the paper’s debate yesterday. Given the Register’s self-importance—it aggressively promotes its debate as the leading event in the run-up to the caucuses—it wouldn’t shock me if it decided to go with the debate’s (Yepsen-appointed) winner.

But its the New Republic. I wouldn’t trust anything that comes out of that cesspool.

So, from a far better source (The Huffington Post) comes this. Author Glenn Horowitz says:

I talked to a major statewide leader with a large following … I can’t say his name yet, but he told me that he’s going to endorse Edwards next week. And I think that could really [make] a significant difference. So I think we’re on the cusp of an Edwards surge.

Considering Edwards won the endorsement of the Register four years ago, it could always happen again. Second time’s the charm? Speculation abound.

But wait! From another reliable source. Barack Obama to get the endorsement? So says Hotline on Call.

On Call is hearing that the Des Moines Register endorsements could be imminent, possibly tomorrow, and posted online tonight.

Buzz is that the odds are with Barack Obama

The paper’s support for John Edwards in 2004 catapulted him to a second place caucus finish. This year, though, he competes for the nod with a ‘fresher’ face in Obama.

Obama’s anti-war position could be the deal sealer. Edwards supported the 2002 Iraq war resolution, but has since said the vote was a mistake.

Stay tuned.

So its Biden, Obama, or Edwards? What? I think my head’s gonna explore…
Why don’t we just wait till tomorrow and find out from the best source of them all – The Des Moines Register.

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Candidate Rankings

Two new candidates rankings are out today, first, from the Iowa Independent.

First Place

Barack ObamaUpward Momentum — Obama has enjoyed a great week of press following his events with Oprah Winfrey. His organization is showing signs of real strength with its nearly 1,000 house parties across the state Thursday night, and he seems to have strong second-choice support. If the caucuses were held tonight, he would win.

Followed by Edwards and Clinton. This is the first time that the Iowa Independent has placed Obama in first place. In the last one, he was tied for second, and before that, third.

And another one from the Washington Post.

1. (tie) Barack Obama: We’ve written extensively over the last few weeks that Obama has improved drastically as a candidate since the start of the race. He is a confident presence on the trail these days and that confidence has seeped down to his staff who now truly believe they can win. It’s a remarkable achievement for a candidate who has only been on the national stage for the last three years or so. Who would have thought it would be Obama not Clinton who would be running the more disciplined and on-message campaign with just three weeks left before Iowa? Can he keep it up? We think so, and there is little question that the organization that Obama has built in Iowa is top notch. But, on caucus night, will Iowans have second thoughts? Will head (Clinton) win out over heart (Obama)? (Previous ranking: 2)

Hillary is also tied with him at #1, but again, momentum seems to be all on Barack’s side. Can he keep this up to January 3rd? Yes, if I have my stay. I’m heading up to Iowa to help out with GOTC (Get Out The Caucus) the day after Christmas. Get ready for reports from the road!

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Democratic Debate Capsules

The format is a bit dull. Not a single person has confronted anyone else, unless you consider Joe Biden joking about Bill Richardson being color blind a “confrontation”, or Barack Obama telling Hillary (in jest) that “I’m looking forward to having you advise me in my administration.”

From right to left, according to PBS’s stage placements. Do you think they purposely put Barack and Hillary on opposite sides?

Hillary Clinton: Mediocre. Hasn’t said anything that stands out, hasn’t rebutted anything that Edwards or Obama have said, and I honestly can’t remember anything that was much of a soundbite. On the plus side, not attacking Obama does hep her put some distance on the disgraceful drugs comment from her NH Co-chair yesterday.

John Edwards: He has been creating some mighty rhetoric, creating a sense of urgency. He has been speaking about battling the Corporations, the special interests. He has spent a lifetime winning these fights? What about that fight against George W. Bush when you were Kerry’s VP nominee? And, as someone who watches these things a lot, Edwards repeats himself more than anyone else, except perhaps Richardson.

Chris Dodd: The dud. Even on the 30 second personal statement he didn’t look rehearsed. He looks tired, and like he is balding (anyone else notice that?). Joe Biden has certainly taken the rug from underneath him, he can’t even make the experience argument anymore, and he doesn’t answer the question – why am I running for President? What happened to the Constitution?

Joe Biden: He had the answer of the night when the moderator accused him, basically, of being racially insensitive. He’s having a great performance, especially towards to the end of the debate, but he does at times sound like a policy work, and tends to get into Senate-speak.

Barack Obama: He sounds prepared. Less “umm”‘s, and less hesitation than in previous experiences. One of his best performances because he looks and sounds Presidential, up to par with Biden and Clinton, but his rhetoric isn’t as fiery as Edwards.

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Hillary's "Scathing" Attacks on Obama!

Hillary’s on the attack against Obama. And boy has she released some whoppers.

It all started on Dec 2nd, when Howard Wolfson, Clinton’s Communications Director, said this on Meet the Press.

“There’s a lot that voters don’t know about Barack Obama.”

Oh really, Mr. Wolfson. Yes, he was right. There was a lot we didn’t know about Barack Obama, and Hillary’s campaign has made sure that we know. In the last few weeks we have seen quite the barage of anti-Obama dirt.

First, the infamous kindergate press release, showing Obama’s true intentions for the White House, a plan he charted out at age 5.

In kindergarten, Senator Obama wrote an essay titled ‘I Want to Become President.’
“Iis Darmawan, 63, Senator Obama’s kindergarten teacher, remembers him as an exceptionally tall and curly haired child who quickly picked up the local language and had sharp math skills. He wrote an essay titled,’I Want To Become President,’ the teacher said.”

Devestating. And he did it again in third grade! The tenacity. I’m sure that he did drugs as a teenager as part of his grand plan to be “authentic” and “honest” to win in 2008.

But there was more. On Dec 4th, Hillary dug deep, and found this tasty bit. In the Illinois State Senate, Barack Obama voted present. NINE TIMES.

Speaking in Iowa, Clinton singled out nine roll calls in which Obama voted “present.” The votes dealt with abortion and gun-control initiatives.

Did it matter that this was the strategy of the Illinois pro-choice community? No. Barack voted present. Presidents can’t vote President. Barack can’t be President. See the logic?

Then this came out. Barack Obama was reaching out to College Student. COLLEGE STUDENTS! He wants College Student who spend the majority of their time in Iowa, pay taxes in Iowa, and often work in Iowa, to VOTE ?! The audacity!

In a jab at Obama’s efforts to encourage out-of-state students who attend college in Iowa to caucus, Clinton said the caucuses are only for people who live in this state.“This is a process for Iowans. This needs to be all about Iowa, and people who live here, people who pay taxes here,” she told the clear Lake crowd.

Then another bomb today. A questionaire that Obama filled out 11 years ago, in which he opposed capital punishment, supported abortion rights, was against the spread of handguns and, listen to this, supported Government-run Universal healthcare! OBAMA IS TOO LIBERAL TO BE ELECTED. How dare he take common sense Progressive stances on the issues. We need to win in red states. Obama won’t sacrifice his values to pander to red state voters, how can you vote for him?

So yes, Hillary, there was a lot we didn’t know about Barack Obama. He had dreams as a grade school student. He worked with the pro-choice community to protect abortion rights. He wants to encourage young people to vote and participate in the election process. He was as Progressive on the issues that matter in 1996 as he is today in 2007.

I, personally, can’t wait for whatever dirt you can dredge up next! (or should I say Drudge?) I recommend reading his autobiography, unlike yours it’s honest and truthful, and its full of dirt on Obama’s character. His human character, that is.

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Hillary’s “Scathing” Attacks on Obama!

Hillary’s on the attack against Obama. And boy has she released some whoppers.

It all started on Dec 2nd, when Howard Wolfson, Clinton’s Communications Director, said this on Meet the Press.

“There’s a lot that voters don’t know about Barack Obama.”

Oh really, Mr. Wolfson. Yes, he was right. There was a lot we didn’t know about Barack Obama, and Hillary’s campaign has made sure that we know. In the last few weeks we have seen quite the barage of anti-Obama dirt.

First, the infamous kindergate press release, showing Obama’s true intentions for the White House, a plan he charted out at age 5.

In kindergarten, Senator Obama wrote an essay titled ‘I Want to Become President.’
“Iis Darmawan, 63, Senator Obama’s kindergarten teacher, remembers him as an exceptionally tall and curly haired child who quickly picked up the local language and had sharp math skills. He wrote an essay titled,’I Want To Become President,’ the teacher said.”

Devestating. And he did it again in third grade! The tenacity. I’m sure that he did drugs as a teenager as part of his grand plan to be “authentic” and “honest” to win in 2008.

But there was more. On Dec 4th, Hillary dug deep, and found this tasty bit. In the Illinois State Senate, Barack Obama voted present. NINE TIMES.

Speaking in Iowa, Clinton singled out nine roll calls in which Obama voted “present.” The votes dealt with abortion and gun-control initiatives.

Did it matter that this was the strategy of the Illinois pro-choice community? No. Barack voted present. Presidents can’t vote President. Barack can’t be President. See the logic?

Then this came out. Barack Obama was reaching out to College Student. COLLEGE STUDENTS! He wants College Student who spend the majority of their time in Iowa, pay taxes in Iowa, and often work in Iowa, to VOTE ?! The audacity!

In a jab at Obama’s efforts to encourage out-of-state students who attend college in Iowa to caucus, Clinton said the caucuses are only for people who live in this state.“This is a process for Iowans. This needs to be all about Iowa, and people who live here, people who pay taxes here,” she told the clear Lake crowd.

Then another bomb today. A questionaire that Obama filled out 11 years ago, in which he opposed capital punishment, supported abortion rights, was against the spread of handguns and, listen to this, supported Government-run Universal healthcare! OBAMA IS TOO LIBERAL TO BE ELECTED. How dare he take common sense Progressive stances on the issues. We need to win in red states. Obama won’t sacrifice his values to pander to red state voters, how can you vote for him?

So yes, Hillary, there was a lot we didn’t know about Barack Obama. He had dreams as a grade school student. He worked with the pro-choice community to protect abortion rights. He wants to encourage young people to vote and participate in the election process. He was as Progressive on the issues that matter in 1996 as he is today in 2007.

I, personally, can’t wait for whatever dirt you can dredge up next! (or should I say Drudge?) I recommend reading his autobiography, unlike yours it’s honest and truthful, and its full of dirt on Obama’s character. His human character, that is.

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Obama: Experienced vs. the Republicans

Will Obama’s experience hurt in the general? It’s been his achilles heel so far in the primary race, (though to some, it might be the reason they are voting for him). We’ve all known about Hillary forever, for me, since I was nine. John Edwards was once the next Vice President of the United States. Joe Biden and Chris Dodd are stalwarts of the Senate, and I haven’t even mentioned the candidate with the most impressive resume, Bill Richardson. Compared to his opposition, perhaps Obama is inexperienced.

But will this matter in the general? Let’s take a look at Obama’s experience versus that of five Republicans. I am excluding Fred Thompson because, well, do you actually think Fred can win? And I’m throwing in Ron Paul for shits and giggles, and cause I still think he has a chance. I’ll define experience in four ways – legislative, executive, political, and foreign policy. I will also pro-rate this up to election day 2008. Numbers signify years of experience.

Crossposted at Daily Kos and OneMillionStrong.US

Barack Obama
Legislative: 12 (4 US Senate, 8 Illinois legislature)
Executive: 0
Political: 3 (Community Organizer)
Foreign Policy: 4 (US Senate Foreign Relations Committee)
Extra Credit: Professor of Constitutional Law at University of Chicago, Editor of the Harvard Law Review

Mike Huckabee
Legislative: 0
Executive: 10 (Governor of Arkansas)
Political: 3 (Lietenent Governor of Arkansas)
Foreign Policy: 0
Extra Credit: President of the Arkansas Baptist State Convention, Ordained minister.

Mitt Romney
Legislative: 0
Executive: 4 (Governor of Mass)
Political: 1 (Salt Lake City Olympics CEO)
Foreign Policy: 0
Extra Credit: Successful businessman. Former bishop.

Rudy Guiliani
Legislative: 0
Executive: 8 (Mayor of NYC)
Political: 12 (US Attorney (2X) and Associate Attorney General)
Foreign Policy: 0
Extra Credit: 9/11. Once was a law clerk? Has ruled the lecture circuit since leaving Mayoral post.

John McCain
Legislative: 26 (4 Congressional, 22 US Senate)
Executive: 0
Foreign Policy: 0 (Not a member of any Foreign Relations related committees!)
Political: 4 (Navy Liason to the US Senate)
Extra Credit: Served bravely in Vietnam, spent five years in a POW camp.

Ron Paul
Legislative: 18 (US Re 3X)
Executive: 0
Foreign Policy: 6 (House Foreign Relations Committee)
Political: 0
Extra Credit: OB/GYN, delivered many babies. Even when he was a Congressman.

Conclusion

Only one Republican candidate for President can claim truthfully to be more experienced than Barack Obama, and he, in my opinion, is the least likely of any candidate on this page to win. John McCain will not be the Republican nominee for President, and even if he is, I doubt he could use experience to beat Barack. More likely, people will worry about his age, at 73 he would be the oldest first term President ever.

As for everyone else, Barack Obama more or as much legislative, and except for Ron Paul, more foreign policy experience. He has been in the public sphere as long as, or longer, than any candidate except for John McCain and Rudy Guiliani.

Compared to the Republicans running for President (a truly weak field) Barack Obama is experienced, fresh, and electable. No Republican will be able to effectively use experience as an issue against Barack. He can beat the Republicans in November, and he can beat them decisively. Experience will not be an issue in Fall 2008 with Barack Obama as the Democratic nominee for President.

Sources: Wikipedia and candidate websites.

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New McCain Ad

So Barack’s got Oprah

Huckabee’s got Chuck Norris

Hillary’s got Barbara Streisand

and John McCain’s got…Curt Shilling?

You need to a flashplayer enabled browser to view this YouTube video

I smell a loser.

Update 8:36

I can say this though – McCain has had the worst advertising of any candidate this race not named Duncan Hunter.

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Ranking the Caucus Training Videos

Barack Obama, John Edwards, and Hillary Clinton have all released caucus training videos for the Iowa Caucuses. Obama has also released a Nevada Caucus training video. Each video has its strengths and weaknesses, and here I’m going to use my subjective rating system and rate each of the three videos in four catagories, Creativity, New Media Savvy, Effectiveness and how informative is it. One video, in my opinion, stood out as being the most effective by far – read below to see which one it was.

More below the fold. All the videos can be watched at the here.

John Edwards

+’s
- Succinct, easy to understand slide by slide steps about how to win the caucus for John Edwards.
- Superb productions – graphics, music, voice-overs all have a professional quality, and its obvious that a lot of input went into the making of this video.
- Language – Simple, clear, and direct. Few wasted words, and really give the viewer the impression that the caucus is a simple and fun event.
- Fantastic ending – a parody of other documentaries, it reminds everyone why they are supporting John Edwards and what he’ll accomplish in four years.

-’s
- The short section about taking food to and high fiving your local Edwards office workers. Doesn’t add to the video.
- The slide by slide graphics get a little tedious after a while (alright, I’m nitpicking)
- Orange Bowl reminder – I doubt too many Iowans care about Kansas versus Virginia Tech. Iowa is Big 10 country. Nevertheless…

This video was made with YouTube in mind, and was meant for a savvy web audience, but its simple to understand frame by frame message makes it ideal for all age groups, regardless of technological literacy. At 6:46, its not too long nor too short. However, its only weakness is also these strengths, and it leaves some questions unanswered.

Creativity: 9
New Media Savvy: 9
Effectiveness: 7
Informative: 5

Barack Obama

+’s
- Barack speaking to the camera. He is the candidate, and having him lead the intro is powerful.
- Question and answers with Gordon Fischer are clear, concise, and give viewer a lot of a information.
- Long: almost 8 minutes.

-’s
- Intro. Reminds me of a late night, 80′s era infomercial.
- Doesn’t grab your attention, nor does it provide any incentive to continue watching to the end.
- Looks amateurish at times. The voice (a young midwestern) doesn’t provide any authority not does he sound authentic. Feels like it was made by volunteers.
- Doesn’t provide viewer with any a sence of urgency.

Creativity: 3
New Media Savvy: 4
Effectiveness: 6
Informative: 8

Though informative, that’s really it. It doesn’t give viewers any sense of empowerment, and doesn’t look all that well made. Doesn’t have much of a YouTube feel to it, and at 8 minutes, is a little long. I was tempted to stop watching it in the middle. No creativity in how the story is told, a straightforward, textbook style training video with a few cool Final Cut Pro graphics thrown in.

Hillary Clinton

+’s
- Well made. Audio, video quality, and the narrator all are professional.
- Good use of Bill Clinton and humor, though a little too much hamburger (I almost stopped watching to go eat)
- Makes a caucus look incredibly simple, like voting except you get counted. Showing up = Hillary wins!
- Short – about four minutes, and keeps the viewers attention throughout.

-’s
- Feels too much like a TV commercial, especially the introduction.
- Not very informative. Nothing about caucus math, viability, undecided voters, delegates or the second round.
- Difficult to find. Go ahead. Go to Hillary’s website and try to find this video, or any information about the Iowa caucus process. Good luck.

The shortest of the three videos, and the least informative, Hillary’s video has one goal – get the voters out to the caucus. It keeps things simple and doesn’t get into very many details, and the video makes it sound like the precinct captains at every precinct will have everything taken care of.

Creativity: 4
New Media Savvy: 3
Effectiveness: 7
Informative: 3

In conclusion, John Edwards wins three of the four catagories and in my opinion has by far the best caucus training video. It has the right balance of information, motivation, and creativity. It gives viewers something to fight for on January 3rd and reminds them of why they support Edwards. Obama and Clinton both showed a lack of new media savvy with two traditional training videos, while Edwards used new media effectively without losing an old media audience. For your enjoyment, you can see all three of the videos here.

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