So far, amidst all the polls, all the predictions, pundits, and idiocracy, there has been one thing that has led me in the right direction, one things that has been pretty accurate in who’s doing well and who’s not.

My good old, trustworthy gut.

Back in the fall, my guys wasn’t feeling to great. Barack Obama was gaining no traction in Iowa. We were holding rallies, organizing canvasses, but turnout was mediocre. Had we peaked already? In October, at a Saturday Canvass kick-off rally in Des Moines, only 100 people showed up on the dreary but warn day. A few days later, the five year anniversary speech of Barack’s first standing against the war took place in a half filled room, and received no media coverage. Inevitable looked, well, inevitable.

Things weren’t going well. But then, something changed.It was early November, and the campaign began to finally come into its own. I started to feel something, my gut started to tell me – things are going up. We’ve hit the bottom.

Then came two huge turning points. Barack’s Jefferson Jackson Dinner speech, and the Philadelphia debate.

My gut told me that things were going great all the way up to Iowa. In the run-up to caucus night, my gut instinct told me that John Edwards, not Hillary Clinton, was the biggest obstacle, contrary to everything the campaign was telling me.

My gut was right. We won Iowa! Edwards finished second.

Then, unexpectedly, my gut brought me back down to earth.

Even though the polls showed Barack up by double digits, something didn’t feel right. I was incredibly nervous about the upcoming ABC Debate, and nervous about how it would be received. I couldn’t sleep the night before the primary. My gut was telling me that things weren’t going well, somehow, I could feel it in the air, New Hampshire wasn’t turning the way we wanted it to. I hope that my guy was wrong, and that the polls were right.

Then it hit. Hillary won NH.

What was it? I think we were too cocky. I even kept hearing things like “we’re gonna win New York.” Don’t lie, I know many of you felt it. But it was never going to be that easy, and New Hampshire was the reality check.

The election once again looked like it was going into the gutter. Race became a big issue, and I feared that Barack was turning into the stereotypical Black Candidate. Richardson dropped out, and Edwards seemed to disappear of the radar. My gut stayed gloomy until two days ago.

Once again, I don’t know what it was. But it was in the air, Barack was regaining his footing, and the momentum seemed to be shifting back in our way. I wasn’t worried at all before the debate last night, my gut told me nothing bad would happen. I feel optimistic about Nevada, and I’m getting this distinct feeling that Nevada is going to be far more important than anyone thinks.

I think it’s happening. Barack is going to win the nomination. Anyone else feel the same way as my gut does?

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