As you might know, I’m a bit superstitious. And I support Barack Obama. So, I’m a little wary to make any predictions about the Democratic Primary for fear of jinxing Barack.

However, I wanted to point everyone towards this excellent, well researched, and incredibly enlightening Super Tuesday projection from Poblano over at DailyKos. His generous predictions are forecasting a slight victory for Hillary Clinton. The only thing I would add is that, if as Poblano predicts, Hillary gets 37.5% in Kansas, I would be shocked.


I’m gonna go ahead and make some Republican Projections. With as my guide and intuition at my back, here we go! In East to West order (estimated polling close time). I’ve noticed a lot of polls starting to shift to Romney, so I’m beginning to wonder if a comeback is in line.

Predictions below the fold.


Mitt Romney in a landslide. It is his home state.


The last poll showed McCain edging Romney. I’m gonna give this one to momentum, with in the Northeast I see going to McCain by a small margin.

New York

With Guiliani out, McCain is a natural fit for this more moderate state. Big win for McCain in a winner take all state.

New Jersey

Ditto for New York. McCain begins Super Tuesday with a huge margin over Romney.

West Virginia

This will be one of the main battlegrounds between McCain, Romney, and Huckabee because of WV sizable evangelical base. No Polls from here, but my guess is that McCain pulls it off due to a conservative split between Romney and Huckabee.


It’s neck and neck between the top three here. This is a must win for Huckabee if he is going to have any chance. I can’t imagine that Romney is doing as well as the polls show, in a state with similar demographics to South Carolina where Romney finished fourth. I’m gonna give this one also to McCain with Huckabee finishing second.


Polls show it close, but I still think this is Huckabee country. Huckabee wins over McCain, and Romney finished a distant 3rd.


Another battleground state. Polls show all three in a tight race, but McCain has done the most campaigning. This one is too close to call, sorry folks.


McCain in a landslide, no contest.


Another battleground. McCain has been polling ahead, but the southern half of the state is just like Arkansas, and Huckabee is expected to do strongly. With a crowded Democratic primary (and with both Obama and Hillary visiting) I see the independent vote going on the Democratic side, and Huckabee pulling of a minor upset.


Huckabee huge. His home state.


McCain wins huge in a state that loves Military heroes.


A caucus state, but a politically active one. I see McCain holding of a surprisingly strong showing from Mitt Romney.

Midway Point

Halfway through the country, and McCain is looking strong, and Romney looking weak with only one win, his home state. It’s now, though, that the tide will start to shirt ever so slightly.

North Dakota

Like Maine, Nevada, and Wyoming, a sparsely attended caucus state. Romney gets his first big victory of the night here.


One of the few states where Romney was polling ahead. Chalk up another one to Mitt!


The same Mormon base that dominated the vote in Nevada will lead to a dominating victory for Romney in Utah.


Hard to predict without any polls, but I’m gonna go out on a limb and predict that the same low turnout factors lead to another big victory for Romney.


McCain’s home state, big win for McCain


The big lebowski. And much to my surprise, recent polls have Romney and McCain tied! I never thought that Romney would have much appeal in the golden state, but perhaps his economic message is catching on. I still think that this is McCain territory, but the delegate count will be much closer than anyone thinks.


The last state, and I’m gonna call it for…Ron Paul! The only poll I saw had him winning, and he has a natural base in this more libertarian, anti-government state.

So the final count it, McCain 10, Romney 5 , Huckabee 3, Paul 1. And, effectively, the end of the Republican nomination as McCain should have it wrapped up.

Free weekly roundups, straight to your inbox


Asia Undercovered: Get the stories on Asia that mainstream media doesn’t cover.




You've signed up! Please check your email to confirm.