Yes, its a political post! With the election coming up, expect to see a few more of these, crossposted at DailyKos

One the strange things we’ve seen, thus far, this electoral season, is that divergence between swing-state polling and general election polling. The charts below visualize this discrepancy.

Screenshot from 2012-08-02 13:25:58

Screenshot from 2012-08-02 12:33:49
Obama is clearly overperforming in the swing states, which hold the keys to the election, but is weak nationally. What is the reason?

The key lays not in Obama, but in Mitt Romney.

Mitt Romney, who has been running for President for nearly six years now, was the frontrunner for the Republican nomination. Usually, this is a coronation process, but, in this cycle, we saw something different. Instead of the party coalescing around their frontrunner, we saw chaos.

A repeated pattern began to emerge. The more people got to now Romney, the more the disliked him. He still won, though, due to this.

Ad spending per vote, Primaries

Ad spending per vote: $12.70
Ad spending per vote: $3.01
Ad spending per vote: $4.78
Ad spending per vote: $6.33

And, well, the fact that he was running against bumbling idiots, for lack of a better term.  But now? He’s not running against ut now? He’s not running against 18 point loser Rick Santorum, ethically challenged Newt Gingrich, or losing his home state Rick Perry.

He’s running against Barack Obama. Who beat John McCain handily. The same McCain who beat Romney.

Why is Obama leading? It’s quite simple. The millions being spent (mostly by Romney supporting groups) is being focused on these three states. This chart from the NY Times shows how the campaigns are focusing their spending, though it doesn’t include the massive pro-Romney SuperPACS.

What does this mean? It means one thing – the race is currently a regional race, with spending targeted in the swing states. With time, the race will become more national, as the national media, and Presidential debates, focus our attention. The effect we currently see in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida, and other swing states, will become a national effect. Obama’s lead will widen, and by the end, I predict, his electoral count victory will be larger than 2008.

Why? Because time has shown us again and again, that the more people learn about Mitt Romney, the less they like him.

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